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Understanding Pot Odds

Pot Odds and How to Calculate Them

Pot odds are an important aspect of poker and you don’t need to be an expert to have a rudimentary understanding of how they work, although it will be to your advantage to be able to call on them quickly in any given situation.

The easiest way to explain how to calculate pot odds is to count the number of unknown cards, count the number of outs you have and then divide the number of outs by the number of unknown cards.

For example, you hold King Jack off-suit in a game of hold ‘em and the flop is Qh, Tc, 4d. In order to calculate your odds of improving your hand, you know that there are 47 unknown cards (52 minus the two in your hand and the three on the flop), and of those 47, there are four A’s and four 9’s that will improve your hand and make you a straight.

Therefore there is an 8 in 47 chance that you will make your straight, or just over 6 to 1.  If you believe that you are up against a single pair and that hitting a King will help you win the hand, then you can include the three other Kings left in the deck as extra outs. This would mean that you have an 11 in 47 chance that your hand will improve enough to win, which gives you odds of just over 4 to 1.

A Simple Way

After the flop, count your outs and multiply by 4. In other words, for you to hit your 9 or Ace by the river, you have a 32% chance. After the turn, count your outs and multiply by 2. This means you have a 16% of hitting your card. These calculations can only act as an approximate guide, but compared to the true probability of 31.5% and 17%, you can see that it’s accurate enough.

How To Apply What You Know

First of all, you must forget about any money or chips you have already invested in the hand. Once you have done that, you can see that there is $100 in the pot. So, what is the most you should be prepared to invest in your hand in order for it to be a correct and profitable play?

Using our example above, and using our rule of 4, we can see that we have a 32% chance of making our straight, or a 2 to 1 chance. This means that if the pot needs to be 3 times bigger than the bet we need to call for it to be profitable. If we miss our card on the turn and just have the river to come, the odds lengthen to a 16% chance, or odds of approximately 6 to 1. This means that the pot needs to be 6 times the size of any bet you need to call.